The Decline of Horses in the Workforce: From Millions to a Fraction

The once prominent role of horses in the global workforce has significantly diminished over the past century. Before the rise of the internal combustion engine, horses were employed in various industries, with their numbers reaching a staggering 24 million in the United States alone. However, their population has dwindled to a mere 1.5 million today, primarily serving as pets or participating in competitive activities.

According to Anne Norton Greene’s book “Animal Power,” the draft animal population, predominantly consisting of horses and mules, grew six-fold between 1840 and 1900, surpassing the growth rate of the human population. By 1900, there was approximately one horse or mule for every three humans in the United States. These work animals were primarily utilized in agriculture and transportation, with a significant concentration in cities and their surrounding areas.

In urban settings, horses played a crucial role in providing transportation options for centuries. From horse-drawn omnibuses and private coaches to taxi services dating back to the 17th century, horses were the primary means of travel within cities. However, with the advent of the internal combustion engine, the number of working horses in the US declined to six million by 1960. Today, only about 1.5 million horses remain in the workforce, out of a total US horse population of approximately 10 million.

A similar trend can be observed in England, where the number of working horses dropped from over three million at the beginning of the 20th century to less than two million within a quarter of a century. Despite the loss of human laborers during World War I and the flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920, the horse population continued to decline. Currently, England is estimated to have around 160,000 horses, with the majority serving as pets or engaged in racing and niche areas such as mounted police and brewery dray horses.

The decline of horses in the workforce can be attributed to the rise of automated movement facilitated by the internal combustion engine. The transition to mobile technology, particularly automobiles, allowed for more efficient transportation and reduced reliance on horses. Now, with the development of artificial intelligence (AI), we are witnessing the emergence of a new workforce that has the potential to replace human employees in various functions.

While the capabilities of AI are growing exponentially, it is important to note that the current hype surrounding AI surpasses its actual capabilities. Although AI has shown remarkable performance in narrow, rules-based scenarios such as games, its understanding and comprehension of output remain limited. Additionally, the integration of AI with existing systems poses challenges, including data silos and application integrations.

Despite these limitations, AI’s predictive and analytical capabilities are increasingly being leveraged by companies to make informed decisions that benefit their bottom line, society, and the environment. However, research indicates that only a small percentage of organizations possess the necessary change capabilities to successfully adopt AI in their business operations.

As AI continues to integrate into the workforce, it is expected to gradually replace human employees in various functions, leading to a reduction in the overall human workforce. This transition will have significant societal implications, necessitating a reevaluation of purpose and fulfillment for humans. The emergence of a new measure of productivity, “machine power,” will likely replace the traditional measure of manpower, as machines take on increasingly complex tasks that surpass human capabilities.