Electric vehicle leader Tesla Inc (TSLA) is set to release its second-quarter delivery numbers this week, with analysts predicting a decline compared to the previous fiscal year. The highly anticipated report has prompted experts and analysts to share their estimates ahead of the announcement.
According to consensus estimates from analysts, Tesla is expected to deliver around 441,000 vehicles in the second quarter. However, Tesla delivery expert Troy Teslike, who shares his estimates on social media platform X and with Patreon subscribers, predicts a slightly lower figure of 423,000 deliveries for the same period. Teslike believes that the consensus number includes outdated estimates from two months ago.
One of the key factors influencing Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries is the performance in China. While some analysts anticipate a mini recovery in the region, Teslike suggests that sales in China are tracking closely to last year’s numbers, with a slight decrease. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla delivered 132,847 vehicles in China, compared to 137,683 in the same period last year. Teslike estimates that Tesla will deliver 150,100 vehicles in China in the second quarter, a decline of 9,380 units compared to the previous year’s second quarter.
To make his estimates, Teslike utilizes various sources, including VIN numbers, vehicle registration data from 26 countries, production and sales milestones, inventory, export data, shipping data, media sources, and conference calls. With an average error rate of 1.2% for production and 2.7% for deliveries over the last 12 quarters, Teslike’s estimates have proven to be relatively accurate.
While the second-quarter earnings report is the immediate focus, analysts are already looking ahead to Tesla’s upcoming “robtaxi day” on August 8. Analyst Andres Sheppard from Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the market expects Tesla to announce a pricing of around $25,000, which could boost additional electric vehicle customer demand and put pressure on competitors with negative gross margins. Sheppard sees the robotaxi launch as a meaningful business segment for Tesla in the long term.
However, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan expresses concerns about declining delivery growth for Tesla due to lower demand. Langan also highlights aggressive competition in China as a potential factor impacting Tesla’s performance. On the other hand, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that China results could provide a mini rebound for Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries, coming closer to the Street’s estimate of 435,000 units.
Tesla’s second-quarter delivery numbers will be closely watched by investors and analysts, as they are seen as a crucial indicator of the company’s performance. While the market awaits these figures, attention is already shifting towards Tesla’s future growth drivers, particularly the anticipated robotaxi day, which could play a significant role in the company’s path to a $1 trillion valuation.
Tesla shares rose 6% to $209.86 on Monday, within a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $299.29. The stock is down 18% over the last year and down 16% year-to-date in 2024.