In the aftermath of the apparent attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, a deluge of claims and speculation flooded social media platforms, reflecting the uncertainties and polarized political climate in America. The shooting incident has once again highlighted the role of social media as a dominant source of information, as well as misinformation, contributing to the current distrust and turbulence in American politics.
According to PeakMetrics, a cyber firm tracking online narratives, mentions of Trump on social media surged up to 17 times the average daily amount in the hours following the shooting. While many expressed sympathy for Trump or called for unity, numerous unfounded and outlandish claims emerged. Some suggested that the Chinese, Antifa, or the Biden administration were behind the assassination attempt, while others even implicated the Republican National Committee (RNC).
Senior intelligence analyst at PeakMetrics, Paul Bartel, noted that everyone was speculating and trying to make sense of the situation by turning to online platforms. However, the claims made were largely baseless and lacked evidence.
One of the most prevalent claims was that the shooting was an inside job or a false flag operation. Some voices on the left alleged that Trump orchestrated the incident, while some Trump supporters insinuated that the Secret Service intentionally failed to protect him on orders from the White House. The Secret Service, however, refuted these claims, stating that they had increased protective resources and capabilities for Trump’s campaign.
Videos of the shooting were dissected in partisan echo chambers, with both Trump supporters and detractors searching for evidence to support their beliefs. Some pointed to videos showing Secret Service agents moving audience members away from Trump before the shooting as proof of an inside job, while others used images of Trump’s raised fist to argue that the entire event was staged.
The spread of false claims was amplified by social media bots on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok. An analysis by Israeli tech firm Cyabra revealed that 45% of accounts using hashtags like #fakeassassination and #stagedshooting were inauthentic. Additionally, an image created using artificial intelligence, depicting a smiling Trump moments after the shooting, was found to be circulating online.
Conspiracy theories quickly emerged, misidentifying the suspected shooter, spreading baseless blame on others, and espousing hate speech, including antisemitism. Jacob Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted that moments like this provide fodder for extremists online, who confidently react without concrete evidence, furthering their own ideologies.
While some Republicans blamed President Joe Biden for the shooting, citing his comments about putting Trump in the bullseye, it is crucial not to jump to conclusions about the shooter’s motive until more information is available. Trump’s own incendiary words have previously been criticized for encouraging violence, such as his false claims about the 2020 election and his call for supporters to “fight like hell,” which preceded the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Surveys indicate that the majority of Americans reject violence as a means to settle political differences. However, the combination of heated rhetoric from candidates and the influence of social media can motivate a small minority to resort to violent actions. Political scientist Sean Westwood expressed concern that the shooting could lead to further escalation and inspire others to consider violence as a tactic.