An alleged arms deal between Iran and Armenia has sparked increased tensions in the South Caucasus region, with both countries denying the claims. The reported sale of $500 million worth of arms, including suicide drones, has raised concerns in the area, leading to threats of military action from Azerbaijan and assertions of self-defense from Armenia. The situation highlights the complex geopolitical interests at play, with Iran potentially seeking leverage over Azerbaijan and Armenia balancing its ties between Iran and the West.
The origins of the intrigue can be traced back to a report by UK-based Iranian opposition media outlet, Iran International. The outlet claimed that a senior military official in the Middle East confirmed the arms deal, but the source remains anonymous for security reasons. Iran International also alleged that the cooperation between Iran and Armenia extends to intelligence sharing, training, and the establishment of bases on Armenian soil.
However, both Iranian and Armenian officials have denied the arms sale report. The mere rumor of such a deal has caused an uproar in Azerbaijan, with the country’s Defense Ministry labeling the article as “fake news” aimed at sabotaging Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. Azerbaijan, while denying the report, also warned of Armenia’s “systematic” provocations and its potential impact on the peace process between the two countries.
The alleged arms deal has created a difficult situation to navigate, with a tangled web of interests among all the players involved. The report’s credibility is further questioned by the controversial nature of Iran International, which has been accused of receiving funding from an offshore entity linked to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Additionally, a state-affiliated media outlet in Iran has labeled Iran International as a “platform of the Zionist regime [Israel].”
From Iran’s perspective, such a deal would carry significant risks, potentially straining its relationships with key trade partners like Azerbaijan and Russia. However, the cash generated from an arms sale could be appealing to the sanctions-bound Iranian government, and it could provide Tehran with additional leverage in its dealings with Azerbaijan. For Armenia, bolstering its defense capabilities after the recent Karabakh war is a priority, but engaging with Iran could complicate its efforts to build closer ties with the United States and European Union.
The alleged arms deal comes at a critical juncture in the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While both countries deny the report, tensions remain high, with ceasefire violations and territorial disputes continuing to strain relations. The Armenian Foreign Ministry emphasized its commitment to the protection of its internationally recognized territory and stated that any actions taken are within the framework of international law.